Risk Calculator

Risk Score Calculator - Deep Dive

The Risk Calculator is one of Dashly's three Core Tools - available in every workspace. It translates the “gut feel” of project exposure into a number that can be tracked, compared, and acted on.

How the risk score works

The score is a weighted composite of five base factors, with an optional Black Swan component that adds up to 10 additional points. The total score runs from 0 to 100.

Risk Score = (Budget Variance × 0.25) + (Schedule Delay × 0.20)
            + (Resource Availability × 0.20) + (Complexity × 0.15)
            + (Stakeholder Alignment × 0.10)
            + min(10,  Σ(Black Swan severity × probability ÷ 1000))

Scale: 0–39 = Low Risk  ·  40–69 = Medium Risk  ·  70–100 = High Risk

The five base factors

Each factor is rated 0–100 using the slider. 0 = no risk from this factor. 100 = this factor alone is critical.

25%

Budget Variance

How far over budget are you tracking? 0 = exactly on budget, 100 = severely over. Use your current forecast-to-budget ratio as a guide. Budget overruns are the leading predictor of project failure, which is why this carries the highest weight.

20%

Schedule Delay

Degree of schedule slippage relative to your original baseline. 0 = on track, 100 = critically behind with no recovery path. Delay compounds: it raises costs, demotivates teams, and often reveals scope problems.

20%

Resource Availability

How available are your key people, equipment, and materials? 0 = fully resourced, 100 = severely constrained. The model uses this as a risk amplifier - constrained resources make every other problem worse.

15%

Complexity

Overall project complexity, including technical depth, number of interdependencies, and novelty. 0 = straightforward and well-understood, 100 = highly novel with many moving parts and unknowns.

10%

Stakeholder Alignment

How aligned are your key decision-makers and sponsors? 0 = full alignment and active support, 100 = significant conflict, disengagement, or competing agendas. Misaligned stakeholders kill otherwise healthy projects.

READING THE SCORE

0–39 Low Risk - manageable. Maintain current approach and conduct regular check-ins.
40–69 Medium Risk - warrants attention. Review mitigation strategies and increase monitoring cadence.
70–100 High Risk - requires immediate intervention. Consider executive review before proceeding.

Black Swan Risk

Black Swan events are rare, high-impact scenarios that sit outside normal project risk but can be catastrophic if they occur. They are modelled separately because the base risk formula cannot capture their tail-risk nature.

The formula

Unlike the base factors - which use a simple weighted average - Black Swan risk is accumulative. Each event you add contributes its own points. More events mean more risk. The total is capped at 10 points.

Black Swan Points = min(10, Σ(severity_i × probability_i ÷ 1000))

Example - one catastrophic event:
  Armed conflict: severity 90, probability 15%
  Contribution = 90 × 15 ÷ 1000 = 1.35 pts

Example - multiple events compounding:
  Cyber attack:   severity 80, probability 20% → 1.60 pts
  Currency crash: severity 75, probability 10% → 0.75 pts
  Pandemic:       severity 85, probability 15% → 1.28 pts
  Total = 3.63 pts  (they accumulate - unlike the old average formula)

Why probability matters

A high-severity event with very low probability (e.g. a comet impact - severity 100, probability 0.1%) produces negligible risk points. A moderate-severity event with higher probability (e.g. a regional supplier strike - severity 50, probability 40%) produces meaningful points. This reflects how actual risk is experienced: it's the combination of impact and likelihood, not just severity alone.

Preset scenarios

Rather than typing every scenario from scratch, Dashly provides 20 pre-built scenarios across five categories, each with research-calibrated default severity and probability values. Click any preset chip to add it. You can still adjust both sliders after adding.

Geopolitical

Armed conflict, nationalisation, sanctions, political coup

Economic

Financial crisis, hyperinflation, currency collapse, rate shock

Operational

Cyber attack, supplier collapse, infrastructure failure, mass walkout

Environmental

Pandemic, natural disaster, extreme weather, climate regulation

Regulatory

Industry ban, data privacy enforcement, tax overhaul, licence revocation

Custom scenarios

Type any scenario name in the custom input field and press Add or Enter. You can set any severity and probability values using the sliders. Custom events are saved alongside the rest of the assessment.

Saving and linking to a project

Once your sliders are set and any Black Swan events are configured:

Use the Link to Project dropdown to select a project (optional)
Give the assessment a name (e.g. “Q1 Risk Review” or “Post-funding re-assessment”)
Click Save Assessment

When a project is selected, Dashly also writes the risk score and black swan score back to the project, updating its health score. The Black Swan badge appears on the project card when a black swan score is present.

TRACK RISK OVER TIME

You can save multiple assessments for the same project over time. Open the History panel (top right of the tool) to see all past assessments. Load any previous one to compare. This lets you track whether risk is trending up or down across the project lifecycle.

Factor breakdown panel

The right side of the Risk Calculator includes a Factor Breakdown panel showing the exact contribution of each factor to the final score. For Black Swan events, it shows each event's individual contribution (severity × probability ÷ 1000) and flags when the 10-point cap has been reached.

Recommendations

The Recommendations panel updates in real time as you adjust sliders. It generates specific, prioritised actions based on which factors are most elevated. Black Swan recommendations appear when high-severity, high-probability events are present. The final recommendation always summarises the overall risk level and suggests the appropriate management response.